Talk: Estimates are dead, long live forecasting!
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Speaker:
Mike King
Talk description
Title:
Estimates are dead, long live forecasting!
Short synopsis:
In May 2013 at a conference in Dublin I gave a presentation titled "The lost art of estimation" it outlined some approaches and methods which I hoped would aid in everyone getting better, more accurate estimates. You could be forgiven for thinking that the naming of this session means I've changed my mind about estimates and to be honest, I have. Our ability to under-estimate in almost all situations is well documented and yet we continue to rely on them to keep our businesses afloat. We need to find a better, more suitable solution and I believe that forecasting can be that solution. In this session, I'll outline the issues with using estimates, averages and other single-figure predictions and then walk-through an alternative approach using probabilities and Monte Carlo Simulations. You do not need to be a mathematician to get the most from this session, everyone will come away with an understanding of: - How estimates can give a false picture for a project. - The cognitive biases involved during an estimation process. - What data, at minimum, should be captured. - When to run forecasts. - How to communicate probabilities.
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